On 17/08/2015, in the 5th round of the Bulgaria First Professional League, Beroe hosted Cherno More. It was the last match of the round. Following my football betting predictions, I placed a bet on Over 2.25.
Before the last match of the round I placed $500 on Over 2.25 and the odd was 0.91.
The history of Bulgaria FP League has showed that there is at least one Over 2.5 game per 2 rounds. Or every 10 games there must be at least one Over 2.5 game. The 9 previous games were all Under 2.5.
This 5th round was safe to bet because it was neither the beginning nor the end of the league.
I have a big concern about this league because its average goal is only 2.23 per match which is lower than the norm of 2.5.
The final score was 1-1 with five goals at 42nd and 61st minute. My loss was $250 which was a lesson for me. In fact, I should have ignored this game or waited until the odd dropped to Over 1.75. The risk is always bigger in leagues which has low average goals.