Table of Contents
Make betting an investment
We all started betting just for fun. For me, it started in 1998 as a leisure. There was a world cup at that time and I placed bet just for fun. The world cup ended and betting was not in my to-do list anymore. Sometimes, I placed some fun bets in world cup, euro, or champion leagues. I never thought I could earn money from football betting nor build betting strategies.
Everything changed in 2012 when I found a betting system book. It gave me simple rules to pick matches for betting. I followed the rules and they were correct for about 15 matches in a row. I thought ‘Wow! I can get rich by betting.’ I was very excited. And then I started collecting more football betting data. It was time when I considered betting as a profession.
In the first 2 years, I spent a lot of money to research and to try and fail, at some time I lost all of my savings. Fortunately, I have a day job to recover. Thanks to those loss, I have refined my own betting strategies and now I considered betting as an investment.
And for me “Good investing is boring” (George Soros). Winning does not make me excited to break my rules. And losing does not make me worried and forget my strategy.
A good investment relies on good data.
Get betting data
Get live score via futbol24.com
Get all of the powerful tools for team statistics, league statistics, cup statistics, and details of goal in my ebook “Betting on Streak: Secrets of Martingale System“.
- Bet Over Total Score
There are many types to bet on like 1×2, Handicap, Even Odd, etc. At first I bet on many of them, but eventually I mainly bet on Over Total Score and it is the most profitable bet type. The reason is simple. It is less risk than other types. In Over Total Score, when you have enough goals, it is for sure you will win no matters what happen next. It is not the case for other bet type. For example if you bet a team to win and the team is leading 1-0. What if in the last minute the other team score? You would lose. To avoid this type of risk, bet on Over Total Score.
- Bet in Leagues (not Cups) with average score of 2.60 and above
I don’t like betting in Cups where there are too many calculations. A team who will surely proceed to next round may not play with 100% of it ability. Or in the knock-out round, weak team my try to defend with a 2-storey bus.
- Bet same amount of money every time (no more no less), about 10% of your capital
When I first started betting, my stake varies game by game. When I look back, it is difficult for me to learn from my mistake. So I keep my stake the same for every game. This way I can control my fund and risks. I don’t place more than 10% of my fund on any single game. For me this is a long-term investment and not a short-term gamble.
- Log your bets and results into a spreadsheet
And similar to all other investment, you have to keep track all of your investments and activities so that you can stick to your strategy and learn from your failure. If you don’t keep track, you won’t be able to spot your mistake and you cannot avoid the same mistakes the next time.
- Review the spreadsheet every 2 weeks
You should review all of activities every 2 weeks or whenever you fail several matches in a row. Reviews will make you calm. If you release that you have violated one of the physical traps, you should take 2-week break from betting.
Mind the streaks
You should be very careful betting streaks. For some bet types, it can takes up to 15 consecutive games to break the streak like the Italy Serie A below.
Another example is in Greece league where there are 17 Under 2.5 games in a row.
To see more unbelievable streaks and have the tool to protect yourself, read my book “Betting on Streak: Secrets of Martingale System“.
Avoid the traps
Loss aversion is the tendency to do whatever it takes to avoid a loss. After several losses in a row, you want to bet more games or higher stakes to cover your loss and eventually to avoid the pain of accepting the loss. The irony is that in both these cases the damage has already been done, you just haven’t accepted the loss yet. Usually these situations only get worse, and if it becomes a pattern the betting budget is likely to be drained. Even if you can cover the loss a couple of times, if you do this repeatedly eventually one of those loss will consume all of your betting budget.
Find out 32 other traps in “Football Betting: 30+ Hidden Traps”
Love the leagues
I am not playing with every league. I only focus on the leagues with high average score. The list below shows my favorites leagues and its average goals per match:
Australia A-League – 2.98
Austria Bundesliga – 2.93
Austria Erste Division – 2.64
Belgium 2e Klasse – 2.82
Belgium Pro League – 2.79
Canada Soccer League – 3.63
Croatia 1. HNL – 2.88
Czech Druha Liga – 2.68
Czech Synot Liga – 2.69
England Championship – 2.67
England Conference Premier – 2.7
England League One – 2.67
Estonia Meistriliiga – 3.56
Finland Ykkonen – 3.07
Germany 3. Liga – 2.66
Germany Bundeslega – 2.75,
Germany Regionalliga Nord – 2.95,
Germany Regionalliga West – 2.77,
Holland Eerste Divisie – 3.21
Holland Eredivisie – 3.02
Iceland Premier – 3.02
Ireland First Division – 2.63
Ireland Premier League – 2.67
Italy Serie A – 2.7
Latvia Virsliga – 2.81
Lithuania A Lyga – 3.11
North Ireland Premiership – 3.18
Norway 1 Division – 3.08
Norway Tippeligaen – 3.06
Poland Ekstraklasa – 2.67
Singapore S-League – 3.18
Slovakia Fortuna Liga – 2.68
Spain Primera Division – 2.66
Sweden Div 1 Norra – 3.02,
Sweden Div 1 Sodra – 3.19,
Sweden Allsvenskan – 2.92,
Sweden Superettan – 2.85,
Switzerland Challenge League – 2.74
Switzerland Super League – 2.87
Turkey 1. Lig – 2.74
Turkey Super Lig – 2.85
Ukraine Vyscha Liga – 2.68
Uruguay Primera Division – 2.86
USA MLS – 2.86
Vietnam V-League – 3.56